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2012 Election Prediction

Might as well make a prediction since I have nothing better to do. Since no one is actually going to look at the list, My prediction is Romney: 280 Obama: 258

However, I think* Florida (R), Virginia (R), Iowa (O),New Mexico (O), and Colorado (O) might go either way, and there are enough electoral votes there to swing it either way.

The other possibility is Ron Paul supporters stage a massive write in campaign and win every state, but my bookie isn’t giving me very good odds on that one. (the pay off would be great though, both for the country politically, and for me financially.)

I’m also calling for the Senate to change hands (R-51, D-47, I-2) and the House remaining in Republican control, possibly picking up another few seats. Historically, neither democrats nor republicans are any better than the other with regard to the debt while being president, contrary to what my friends on the left like to say.

It’s true that democrats seem to do better on the debt when they are president, but that is only true when the legislature is in republican hands, something liberals like to leave out. If it’s honest to credit one party without paying attention to the other, than one would be right in saying that republicans are better on the debt when in power. That statement would be only slightly more true than the “tough on debt democrat president”, because last time I checked, the House, not the president passes spending measures.

So if Obama wins, and Congress moves the right way (ha), it may actually be the best outcome, at least statistically, to those who take the countries problems seriously.

*My prediction is in parenthesis, (R) for Romney and (O) for Obama, obviously.

Romney:

  1. New Hampshire
  2. Indiana
  3. Pennsylvania
  4. West Virginia
  5. Virginia
  6. North Carolina
  7. South Carolina
  8. Georgia
  9. Florida
  10. Alabama
  11. Mississippi (had to go through it in my head to spell that, I’m not proud)
  12. Louisiana
  13. Kentucky
  14. Tennessee
  15. Arkansas
  16. Texas
  17. Oklahoma
  18. Kansas
  19. Nebraska
  20. South Dakota
  21. North Dakota
  22. Wyoming
  23. Montana
  24. Idaho
  25. Utah
  26. Arizona
  27. Alaska

Obama:

  1. Maine
  2. Vermont
  3. Massachusetts
  4. Connecticut
  5. Rhode Island
  6. New Jersey
  7. Delaware
  8. Maryland
  9. D.C.
  10. New York
  11. Michigan
  12. Illinois
  13. Wisconsin
  14. Missouri
  15. Iowa
  16. Minnesota
  17. Colorado
  18. New Mexico
  19. Nevada
  20. California
  21. Hawaii
  22. Oregon
  23. Washington
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